The notorious Wagner Group mercenary army hasn’t taken part in major combat operations in Ukraine since its founder, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, went into exile on June 24 after abruptly calling off a brief mutiny against the country’s military leadership.
But that doesn’t mean the paramilitary group, which has been a key prop for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign and security policy in the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, closed up shop after nearly dragging Russia into a civil war.
The U.S. Defense Department estimates that the Wagner Group had about 40,000 personnel fighting in Ukraine alongside regular Russian forces, many recruited by Mr. Prigozhin from Russian jails. But Ukraine is only one of the hot spots that the Wagner Group has been involved in since its founding in 2014. It has played a key role in the Kremlin’s efforts to extend its sphere of influence in Africa by securing a number of lucrative contracts in fields ranging from security services to natural resources like gold, timber, and oil.
Mr. Putin, in an angry speech days after last month’s mini-revolt, revealed that just in the 12 months ending in May, the cast-strapped Kremlin had paid Mr. Prigozhin’s company some $946 million for its services.
After Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin sent diplomats to Mali to reassure the ruling junta there that they were still in power in Moscow and that Wagner Group contract troops in Africa would continue their mission — just without their mercurial founder calling the shots.
The Wagner Group “provides a lot of benefits to Russia and it’s something that these authoritarian governments have come to rely on,” said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russian Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank. “Wagner has been historically allowed to pursue business interests so long as it didn’t hurt the Kremlin’s interests.”
Many people expected Russia’s war on neighboring Ukraine would spell the end of the Wagner Group’s activities in Africa. Moscow pulled many of the mercenaries out of the Central African Republic and other countries so they could take part in the Ukraine campaign, including playing a major role in the battle for control of Bakhmut earlier this year. But, analysts say the Wagner Group has mutated into a more aggressive and predatory machine not totally under Mr. Putin’s control, and is now stronger than ever in Africa.
“Using corruption, terror, and extreme violence, Wagner has been able to maintain its presence on the African continent ever since,” said Nathalia Dukhan, a senior investigator with The Sentry, a private organization that tracks how armed conflicts and atrocities are financed.
A recent Council on Foreign Relations profile of the company estimated the number of Wagner Group employees deployed across Africa at around 5,000. Mr. Putin has allowed other private security forces to flourish inside Russia, and the Wagner Group’s amorphous structure makes it hard to assess and hard to control.
“Rather than a single entity, Wagner is a complex network of businesses and mercenary groups whose operations have been closely tied to the Russian military and intelligence community,” The Council on Foreign Relations survey noted.
The situation in Africa is evolving following the Wagner Group rebellion and even the most astute analyst would be hard-pressed to fully predict what can happen there overnight or in a few months, Ms. Dukhan said.
“The group is resilient, creative, fearless and predatory. The Wagner model has been profitable and successful in projecting Russian influence,” she said. “Wagner may undergo some adjustments, it may shift personnel or even rebrand itself, but its model of ultra-violent domination and plunder remains a serious threat to international peace and security.”
The Wagner Group’s business model in Africa has been built around offering military protection to autocratic leaders like Faustin-Archange Touadera of the Central African Republic, in exchange for access to the country’s natural resources such as diamonds and gold.
“The people of the Central African Republic have suffered horrific campaigns of terror and looting,” Ms. Dukhan said.
NBC News reported earlier this month that hundreds of Wagner Group members were filmed apparently packing up for departure from an airfield in the Central African Republic, but it was unclear if they were being moved out, had been dismissed or were part of a regular troop rotation.
Fidele Gouandjika, an aide to Mr. Touadera, told the network there had been “no change” in the Wagner Group’s presence since the failed coup and that the local Wagner Group senior commander was still on the ground running its operations.
In an odd, still-unexplained twist in the story, Mr. Putin met with Mr. Progzhin and some of his company’s senior figures in Moscow only days after the revolt, an uprising Mr. Putin denounced as a treasonous stab in the back. Although the mercenary army shot down several Russian aircraft, killed a reported 20 Russian troops sent to block their path to Moscow, and took control of the Southern Military District Headquarters, the meeting indicated how carefully the Kremlin must tread as it tried to rein in the mercenary force.
Skilled fighters and cannon fodder
Analysts say the Wagner Group contains military veterans and professional contract soldiers, many with experience in Russian security organizations. But it also has recruited also poorly-trained amateurs and criminals swept off the street. Each has its use.
“Putin needs the cannon fodder Wagner provides to allow his military to maintain a favorable force-to-force and force-to-terrain ratio against the Ukrainian armed forces, especially as the latter wages a large-scale counteroffensive,” Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute think tank, wrote in an analysis after the aborted mutiny.
The Kremlin is employing different strategies to manage the Wagner Group troops that are deployed in Africa and the Middle East. In Syria, they are trying to rein in their independence by pressing them to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Those who refuse to sign are reportedly being flown out of the country.
But things are more complicated in Africa, Mr. Kasapoglu said.
“Wagner exerts a strong presence on the [African] continent and it is hard for even the most powerful elements of the Russian leadership to throw Prigozhin’s loyal triggerman there under the bus,” he said.
Analysts with The Sentry have accused the Wagner Group of instituting a campaign of terror in the Central African Republic since it first set foot in the country about five years ago. Wagner and their its client, President Touadera, raised a parallel army that could be controlled for the regime’s own interests in order to “annihilate” their enemies, they said.
“While Touadera’s inner circle retains control of operations within the capital Bangui, Wagner has managed to establish military control of operations outside Bangui, for which their motto is ‘Leave no trace’ — in other words, kill everyone, including women and children,” analysts with The Sentry wrote “Architects of Terror,” their just-released report about the Wagner Group’s activities in Africa.
The U.S. State Department accused the Wagner Group of committing atrocities in Mali in West Africa after it arrived there in late 2021 following a military coup. In March 2022, witnesses reported a massacre of 300 civilians in the village of Mourah at the hands of Malian government forces and about 100 Russian-speaking men. They lined up the victims in rows of 15 to 20, told them to kneel, and executed them.
“The NGO Human Rights Watch has called the Mourah killings Mali’s worst atrocity in over a decade,” the State Department said.
Analysts with The Sentry said the U.N. should establish a coalition to counter the Wagner Group’s influence in Africa similar to the global effort to defeat ISIS.
“The U.S. should designate the Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization,” The Sentry said. “The group meets the three legal criteria for designation — a foreign organization engaging in terrorist activity that threatens national security,” the organization said.
Regardless of what actions other countries might take, the Kremlin will have its work cut out for it trying to convince the Wagner Group’s senior leadership to sign employment contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Wagner Group recruits pride themselves on their independent culture and will be hesitant to submit to any outside authority, Mr. Hardie with the FDD said.
“It’s going to be a tough challenge. I honestly don’t know what Wagner is going to look like two months from now,” he said.
