Republican heavyweights will clobber each other on a Milwaukee debate stage and jab an absent front-runner in a bizarre clash Wednesday for undecided primary voters, donor dollars and an ignominious prize: second-place honors.
Former President Donald Trump, who must report to Georgia for a criminal booking Thursday, leads all polls by double digits and decided it was too risky to debate rivals he views as second-rate on a Fox News network he’s treating like a lousy ex-girlfriend.
Instead, an eight-person slate of former Vice President Mike Pence, a U.S. senator, a biotech entrepreneur and five current and former governors will compete for a breakout moment — or at least survival to the next debate — in a two-hour session that starts at 9 p.m. Eastern time and will be moderated by anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will occupy center stage, says the 2024 primary is a two-man race with Mr. Trump. He will try to maintain his No. 2 position and leapfrog Mr. Trump later.
“All the candidates on the stage Wednesday night are currently competing for second place,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan. “Given the numerous legal uncertainties currently surrounding Trump, everyone else hopes to be the last person standing in the event of an unexpected front-runner implosion.
“Since Trump won’t physically be on the stage, someone else will be declared the winner by the media and political prognosticators at the conclusion of the debate. This should provide some momentum to at least one candidate’s fledgling campaign.”
Mr. Trump said he decided to skip the Milwaukee event, and perhaps all the debates, because he fears moderator bias and thinks primary voters have decided he is their man.
Early polling suggests he’s right. Still, some have doubts about him amid his fixation on what he calls a rigged election in 2020, followed by criminal charges.
Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel issued a statement Tuesday that ignored Mr. Trump’s absence and said the party is “excited to showcase our diverse candidate field and the conservative vision to beat Joe Biden on the debate stage Wednesday night.”
With Mr. Trump sitting it out, candidates will be tempted to knock Mr. DeSantis, who started the year brightly but has fallen to third in some polls as he resets his campaign. He’s failed to gain on Mr. Trump in the national glare, though his campaign told donors and supporters that the pressure will be on other contenders to catch the leading pair.
“The first debate is their biggest chance yet to grab headlines by attacking the governor, so we know they will try their best,” the campaign said in a memo obtained by The Washington Times. “In contrast, Gov. DeSantis’ objective in this debate will be to lay out his vision to beat Joe Biden, reverse American decline and revive the American Dream.”
Republican candidates probably will aim their sharpest attacks at President Biden and perceived weaknesses on inflation, border security, fentanyl overdoses and Chinese aggression.
The correct approach to U.S. support for Ukraine and abortion limits in a post-Roe v. Wade world also could be points of contention, though Mr. Trump will loom above it all.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who famously dismantled Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida in a 2016 debate, is punching Mr. Trump every chance he gets, saying the ex-president has only himself to blame for a quartet of criminal indictments.
“I’ll listen to the questions, answer them directly and honestly, and if someone up there says something that I believe is dishonest, [I’ll] call them out on it. That’s it. I don’t have any more complicated strategy than that,” Mr. Christie told CNN last week.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who seems to be on every TV channel and is proposing ways to shake up the federal bureaucracy in minute detail, posted a clip of him swatting tennis balls while shirtless, calling it “Three hours of solid debate prep.”
He will flank Mr. DeSantis at center stage and is fundraising off internal memos that show the DeSantis campaign plans to “hammer” him Wednesday.
“The hammer is coming down, so we must be ready,” Mr. Ramaswamy told supporters. “I’ve been approaching debate prep in an unconventional manner, but we must be ready to respond to the attacks on debate night.”
Some of the candidates are sniping at each other ahead of debate night.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who says no one should underestimate her campaign, accused Mr. Ramaswamy of pushing a foreign policy that plans to “make America less safe.”
Mrs. Haley is the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. She is emphasizing her diplomatic chops and says she is not gunning for the vice presidential role despite pundits who say she or her Palmetto State rival in the race, Sen. Tim Scott, would be a natural running mate for Mr. Trump.
“They would both add a tremendous amount of diversity to the Republican ticket. Both Scott and Haley have mostly treated Trump with kid gloves, and I don’t expect they will be obnoxiously aggressive toward the missing front-runner,” Mr. Kall said.
Mr. Scott will be focused on increasing voter recognition. The debate will be the biggest national stage to date for the senator, who is upbeat and well-liked by colleagues and wants to make inroads with viewers.
“Tim Scott will share his positive, conservative message on the debate stage in Milwaukee,” the Scott campaign said. “This debate is another opportunity to connect with millions of voters across the country and show why Tim has faith in America and why he is the strongest candidate to beat Joe Biden.”
Cedric Richmond, Mr. Biden’s campaign co-chairman, predicted the GOP would take a light approach to restricting military-style firearms as the nation struggles with mass shootings, while taking a hard line on women’s access to abortion.
He said it doesn’t matter that Mr. Trump will not be onstage with his Republican rivals as Democrats focus their attacks on his MAGA agenda.
“They’re all playing out of the same playbook and they’re all espousing the same unpopular positions that Donald Trump led with — and he continues to drag this party to the extreme,” Mr. Richmond said.
While some GOP candidates have shied away from the abortion issue, Mr. Pence is leaning into his pro-life stance and has challenged his rivals to back a ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Viewers should expect him to position himself Wednesday as a leading defender of conservative principles.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a wealthy tech entrepreneur who says America needs to unleash its energy potential, will occupy the far right of viewers’ screens as he tries to jump-start a bid that polls in the low single digits.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson qualified for the debate in recent days and will be positioned on the far left of the TV screen. In recent days, he’s alleged that Mr. Trump might not qualify for the presidency under the 14th Amendment because he fueled an “insurrection or rebellion” ahead of the Jan. 6, 2021, protest at the Capitol.
It is an untested theory, but Mr. Trump does face legal jeopardy in four jurisdictions over his post-2020 election actions and storage of sensitive documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate.
“Uneasy lies the crown on the front-runner,” said Ross Baker, a politics professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey. Someone from “that crowd of also-rans” will be “well-situated if the crown falls.”
It’s unclear if the Democratic opponent, Mr. Biden, will watch Wednesday as he vacations in Lake Tahoe, Nevada.
“I don’t know,” principal deputy White House press secretary Olivia Dalton told reporters who asked about it on a trip to Maui, Hawaii. “I sure hope not.”
