A former prime Israeli intelligence official says Iran probably knew upfront of Hamas‘ Oct. 7 murderous attack across southern Israel and that Tehran should now be wary about using its Lebanon-based ally Hezbollah to open a second front against Israel.
Both Iran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah have denied prior knowledge of the operation, while defending the right of Palestinians in Gaza to strike at Israel. The daylong rampage killed an estimated 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, mostly civilians, and led to the capture of hundreds of hostages.
“Israel has the ability to wage a two-front war,” the former deputy head of the Mossad Ehud Lavi said in a local media interview published Monday.
While the former spy official said that “it is better” for Israeli military forces to complete their campaign against Hamas in Gaza before waging war against Hezbollah to the north, he stressed that Israel will make its own determination about “how long we will be prepared to absorb the escalating harassment” from the powerful Shiite militia movement in Lebanon
The comments, made during an interview with Israel‘s Channel 12 television and reported by The Times of Israel, come amid a low-level conflict already raging between Hezbollah and Israeli forces along the Lebanon–Israel border.
U.S. military leaders and the Biden administration have warned Hezbollah and Iran that Washington will support Israel should the current clashes escalate into a major clash.
The Pentagon has positioned two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean since Hamas‘ Oct. 7 attack on Israel and threatened retaliation if Hezbollah increases its current pattern of limited missile attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel.
In a widely anticipated speech earlier this month, Mr. Nasrallah said the group, which is designated by the U.S. State Department as a foreign terrorist organization, will keep pressure on Israel by striking deeper into Israeli territory and would respond to Israel strikes across the border that targeted civilians. Already, nearly 60 Hezbollah fighters have reportedly been lost in the limited skirmishes with Israel since Oct. 7.
However, analysts say Hezbollah is cautious about escalating and appears to be carefully testing Israel with missile strikes. The group is said to be wary about triggering a massive retaliation inside Lebanon, one that would be harshly criticized by the country’s different political factions.
Mr. Lavi urged in his feedback to Israeli media on Monday that Iran itself is probably going engaged in an analogous calculus.
“In my personal estimation, Iran has very big assets that it could lose if it engages Hezbollah in a campaign against us when the Americans are here,” the previous Israeli intelligence official stated.
“I assess that the Iranians are telling themselves that the Americans will wipe out everything they have built for years. But the situation is dynamic,” he stated.
Gaza-based Hamas can also be backed by Iran, and The Times of Israel reported that in different feedback to Channel 12, Mr. Lavi stated he believed it was unlikely that Iran didn’t know upfront of Hamas‘ attack on Israel last month.
“That such a significant, reality-changing event, like the attack on October 7, would happen without the Iranians knowing? That sounds unrealistic to me,” he said.
Iranian officials have repeatedly denied prior knowledge of the Hamas attack and U.S. officials have said they have not seen evidence proving that Iran knew in advance what was coming. Mr. Nasrallah in his speech said the October 7 rampage was a “100% Palestinian operation.”
Some analysts say Israel has for weeks been carefully weighing the possibility of carrying out a major “first strike” against Hezbollah and its weapons depots in Lebanon.
“There is real momentum behind this idea of Israel launching a first strike against Hezbollah‘s aerial munitions in Lebanon,” Benjamin Anthony, a former Israeli Defense Forces combat reservist told The Washington Times last month.
Mr. Anthony, the CEO of the MirYam Institute, a U.S.-based Israeli think tank, said Israeli war planners were weighing such a strike as a way to “defang Hezbollah — a far more potent enemy than Hamas.”
He emphasized that an Israeli attack on Hezbollah munitions sites inside Lebanon “would not be considered a preemptive strike, because we’re already within the midst of a low-level battle with Hezbollah with out query.”
