‘Expect Americans in body bags’: Middle East on the brink as U.S., Iran spiral towards warfare

The U.S. and Iran edged nearer to a full-blown navy confrontation Thursday after a sequence of clashes between American troops and Iranian proxy forces, because the Israel–Hamas warfare threatens to pull the whole Middle East into a brand new cycle of battle.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin tried to tamp down the prospect of escalation. He mentioned Pentagon leaders “are going to do everything in our power” to make sure that a wider warfare doesn’t erupt throughout an more and more tense, harmful theater.

A prime Hamas chief boasted this week {that a} state of “perpetual” warfare with Israel and chaos throughout the area are the militant group’s overriding goals. He steered that the quickly rising tensions signify the precise final result Hamas hoped to attain with its Oct. 7 terrorist assault on Israel.

The rising U.S.-Iran standoff took one other main flip Wednesday when American F-15 fighter jets struck weapons depots in Syria that the Pentagon mentioned have been utilized by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated teams. Those teams are regarded as answerable for dozens of current assaults on U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and neighboring Syria.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels shot down a U.S. drone Wednesday off the coast of Yemen. It was the second direct conflict between U.S. troops and Iranian proxies on the identical day in numerous corners of the Middle East. Hezbollah militia forces in southern Lebanon proceed to have interaction in a simmering sequence of border exchanges with Israeli troops which have killed dozens.

Despite U.S. warnings, Houthi forces on Thursday claimed to have launched a “barrage of ballistic missiles” concentrating on the Israeli Red Sea metropolis of Eilat. Israel’s navy reported {that a} drone hit a college however triggered no bodily accidents. Another missile of unknown origin was intercepted and blocked over the Red Sea.

President Biden has ordered two strikes on Iran-backed militias, however some analysts say the White House hasn’t responded forcefully sufficient and is paving the best way for inevitable American casualties.

“Iran has concluded that they can get away with murder,” mentioned Michael Rubin, a former Defense Department official and now a senior fellow on the American Enterprise Institute. “They do not believe Biden has the wherewithal to do anything significant, whatever the provocation. So, expect Americans to come home in body bags.

“Indeed, [Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] believes that he can force the U.S. to ‘pull an Afghanistan’ and withdraw completely from the region,” Mr. Rubin advised The Washington Times. “Weakness is provocative, and so the U.S. should expect further escalation from Iran and its proxies.”

The Israel-Hamas battle in Gaza reveals no indicators of stopping within the coming weeks and months.

Iran celebrated Hamas’ slaughter of greater than 1,400 Israelis and abductions of greater than 240 folks on Oct. 7. Israel’s counterattack in opposition to Hamas and the sturdy U.S. backing for that marketing campaign seem to have motivated Iran-backed militias to change into extra aggressive in opposition to American troops within the area.

Iran is the first monetary backer of Gaza-based Hamas and Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Hezbollah additionally has threatened escalation in opposition to Israel, although its leaders have signaled a reluctance to begin a full-fledged warfare.

The unfolding chaos within the Middle East appears to be by design. Plunging the whole area into battle and trapping Israel — and, by extension, its key allies such because the U.S. — in an countless warfare was a central purpose of Hamas’ assault, one of many group’s leaders mentioned. The Palestinian trigger, which appeared to be relegated to the again burner simply over a month in the past, is now on the entrance pages of newspapers worldwide.

“Now no one in the region is experiencing calm,” Khalil al-Hayya, a member of Hamas’ prime management physique, advised The New York Times in an interview revealed Thursday. “I hope that the state of war with Israel will become permanent on all the borders and that the Arab world will stand with us.”

Strike Iran?

The Pentagon has dispatched navy belongings, together with two plane provider strike teams and a nuclear-powered submarine, to the Middle East in current weeks as a present of assist for Israel and as a deterrent in opposition to Iran and its proxies. The string of assaults by Iran-linked militias has wounded at the very least 21 U.S. service members and led to the loss of life of 1 American contractor who suffered a cardiac incident whereas sheltering in place.

Tensions between the 2 nations are at their highest level since early 2020, when the U.S. and Iran practically went to warfare after a U.S. airstrike killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a prime Iranian commander and strategist.

Mr. Austin advised reporters Thursday that the U.S. is ready to extend its response if the wave of assaults continues.

“If the attacks against our forces don’t decrease or stop, we will take additional measures,” he advised reporters whereas touring to India. “We’re going to do everything we can to protect our troops, and we are absolutely serious about that.”

Mr. Austin provided little readability on the drone incident Wednesday. U.S. officers confirmed that Iran-supported Houthi forces shot down an Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone working in worldwide airspace off the coast of Yemen. The Houthi rebels have aligned with Hamas in opposition to Israel. Its missile and drone assaults have been thwarted up to now.

The Pentagon didn’t identify the militias focused in Wednesday’s strikes in Syria, however the teams Kata’ib Hezbollah and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada have been answerable for most of the assaults in opposition to American forces within the area over the previous few years.

National safety and overseas coverage circles have reputable questions on how a lot operational management the regime in Tehran wields over these teams. It just isn’t clear whether or not Tehran is instantly concerned within the planning or execution of assaults on U.S. personnel or whether or not it’s conscious of these assaults beforehand. Some analysts argue that the teams have grown extra autonomous over current years.

For a rising variety of U.S. officers, that doesn’t matter. Striking Iran instantly is now an open dialogue in Washington, and it was a uncommon supply of unity on the Republican main candidates’ debate in Florida on Wednesday night time.

“I would tell President Biden with great clarity, if you want to stop the 40-plus attacks on military personnel in the Middle East, you have to strike in Iran,” mentioned Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a Republican presidential hopeful. “If you want to make a difference, you cannot just continue to have strikes in Syria on warehouses. You actually have to cut off the head of the snake, and the head of the snake is Iran and not simply the proxies.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut Democrat, mentioned lately that they’d introduce a nonbinding decision calling on the U.S. to strike Iran instantly if Hezbollah opens a second entrance within the warfare in opposition to Israel.

Under hearth in Syria

The fixed menace to U.S. troops has added gasoline to the long-simmering debate concerning the strategic worth of retaining American forces in crucial elements of the area, significantly Syria. The U.S. has about 900 troops stationed in Syria, with the ostensible purpose of working with Kurdish allies to wage warfare in opposition to the Islamic State terrorist community.

Those American troops routinely perform anti-ISIS missions and have notched a number of high-profile successes in current months. The Pentagon has made clear that it’s going to not regulate that counter-ISIS mission even in mild of assaults in opposition to U.S. personnel on the chaotic Syrian battlefield.

“We urge against any escalation. U.S. personnel will continue to conduct counter-ISIS missions in Iraq and Syria,” Mr. Austin mentioned in an announcement Wednesday after the newest spherical of strikes on Iran-backed militias in japanese Syria.

Some analysts say the rising risks underscore the foolishness of retaining U.S. troops in hurt’s means. They say the U.S. not has a transparent justification for retaining forces in Syria, a war-torn nation populated by a bunch of actors with competing political goals, together with Iran and Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group.

“The U.S. military presence is not only unnecessary but also a dangerous tripwire for a wider war,” mentioned Daniel DePetris, a fellow with the assume tank Defense Priorities, which advocates for a extra restricted U.S. navy position overseas.

“A perpetual U.S. deployment remains high cost with no justifying security benefit,” he mentioned. “It is negligent to keep U.S. forces in Syria and even Iraq where they remain targets from groups that otherwise couldn’t reach Americans. They should immediately redeploy to better-defended bases and eventually outside the region.”