Iraq scrambles to comprise preventing between U.S troops, Iran-backed teams, fearing Gaza spillover

BAGHDAD — Dozens of assaults on U.S. army amenities by Iran-backed factions in Iraq over the previous two months have compelled the federal government in Baghdad to carry out a balancing act that’s turning into harder by the day.

A rocket assault on the sprawling U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Friday marked an additional escalation as Iraqi officers scramble to comprise the ripple results of the Israel–Hamas struggle.

Iran holds appreciable sway in Iraq and a coalition of Iran-backed teams introduced Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to energy in October 2022. But on the similar time, there are some 2,000 U.S. forces stationed in Iraq below an settlement with Baghdad, primarily to counter the extremist Islamic State group.

Baghdad additionally depends closely on Washington’s sanctions waivers to purchase electrical energy from Iran, and because the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iraq’s overseas forex reserves have been housed on the U.S. Federal Reserve, giving the Americans vital management over Iraq’s provide of {dollars}.

Al-Sudani’s predecessors additionally needed to stroll a fragile line between Tehran and Washington, however the Israel–Hamas struggle has significantly upped the stakes.

Since the onset of the struggle on Oct. 7, not less than 84 assaults on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria have been claimed by an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militants dubbed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The militants say their assaults are in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel and its army presence in Iraq and Syria.

Al-Sudani has condemned the assaults and U.S. counter-strikes as a violation of his nation’s sovereignty. He additionally ordered authorities to pursue militants concerned within the assaults, most of which didn’t trigger accidents or main injury. His workplace declined additional remark.

Washington has despatched messages that its endurance is carrying skinny.

After the embassy assault, the Pentagon mentioned that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “made clear (to al-Sudani) that attacks against U.S. forces must stop.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken instructed al-Sudani that Washington expects Iraqi officers to take extra motion to stop such assaults, and believes they’ve the aptitude to take action, a U.S. official instructed The Associated Press.

During a latest journey to the area, CIA Director William Burns warned al-Sudani of “harsh consequences” if Iraq doesn’t act to cease the assaults, an Iraqi official mentioned.

The two officers spoke on situation of anonymity in keeping with briefing laws.

In a name with the Iraqi premier earlier this month, Blinken mentioned that the Americans would take issues into their very own palms, arguing that Baghdad had not carried out sufficient to pursue the perpetrators, in line with two Iraqi officers who spoke on situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to remark publicly.

Two days later, a U.S. strike on a drone launch website close to the Iraqi metropolis of Kirkuk killed 5 militants.

The U.S. and far of the worldwide group have scrambled to stop the struggle within the besieged Gaza Strip from increasing throughout the area.

Analyst Renad Mansour mentioned he believes Iran is ensuring the assaults stay beneath a threshold that might provoke a serious U.S. response.

“Both Iran and Iraq have maintained thus far a clear line that, at the moment, Iraq cannot turn into a playground that could destabilize the Sudani government,” mentioned Mansour, a senior analysis fellow on the Chatham House suppose tank.

He mentioned that’s partially as a result of Iraq‘s role of passing messages between Washington and Tehran.

Sometimes the messenger is al-Sudani.

In early November, Blinken met with al-Sudani in Baghdad a day before the Iraqi prime minister was set to visit Tehran. Al-Sudani had won a specific promise from the militias that no attacks would be launched during Blinken’s go to, in line with an Iraqi official and a member of the Kataib Hezbollah militia. Following the go to, al-Sudani carried a message from Blinken to Iran to restrain the militias.

Both officers spoke on situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to remark publicly.

Per week after the Iraqi premier’s diplomatic efforts, the United States prolonged Iraq’s sanctions waiver by 4 months to buy Iranian electrical energy. Iran-hawks in Washington criticized the transfer, saying it will shore up income for Tehran whereas its proxies are at struggle with Israel.

Mansour says the U.S. has used the sanctions waiver as “one of its cards” in economy-centered efforts to strain Iran and Iraq.

Unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, seen as Iran‘s most powerful proxy in the region, Iraq’s militias have to this point solely performed a restricted position within the battle.

For now, solely small variety of militiamen from Iraq are in southern Lebanon, close to Israel‘s northern border, said the official from the Kataib Hezbollah group. He said the Iraqis are working on “battle management” alongside Hezbollah and representatives of Hamas, the militant group that has ruled Gaza for 16 years and is currently battling Israel.

He said the Iran-backed groups in Iraq do not want the conflict to spread across the region, but are prepared to respond with force to any attacks.

Should Iran and allies choose to escalate, al-Sudani’s authorities will doubtless be unable to rein them in or forestall penalties on Iraqi soil, mentioned Iyad al-Anbar, a political science professor at Baghdad University.

“And this is why all al-Sudani has been able to do is try to bring some calm through statements,” mentioned al-Anbar.

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Chehayeb reported from Beirut. Associated Press author Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.