WARSAW — Poland has become the face of Western resolve and strength in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but the country’s divisive internal politics and tense relations with the European Union — and more pointedly Germany — are on full display ahead of October elections that most here say are shaping up as the most consequential since the collapse of communism in 1989.
It’s a contest pitting the ruling Law and Justice party, whose staunchly conservative government has held power since 2015, against a liberal establishment headed by former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who promises to repair Warsaw’s relations with the EU and keep the country on a path to democracy in line with the powers that be in Brussels.
The competing campaigns look like a political cage match between a nationalist right-wing government seeking an unprecedented third term in power on Europe’s post-communist periphery and a pro-EU opposition party grasping for relevance at a moment of continent-wide unease over Russian aggression and populist doubts about the dominance of the bloc’s biggest players in setting bloc policy.
Supporters of the Law and Justice party claim that Mr. Tusk, who previously held the position of president of the EU’s executive branch and later resigned as prime minister in 2014, is a German agent with the intention of limiting Poland’s growth as a military and economic force in Europe.
The current government is relying on the belief that there is a significant level of anti-German feeling among Polish voters, despite the fact that Germany is the largest contributor to Poland’s economy, responsible for approximately 21% of all foreign investments in the nation.
Certain members of the ruling party have even resorted to evoking memories of Poland’s challenging history during German occupation in World War II, by depicting Mr. Tusk as a Nazi. This portrayal highlights the extent to which political rhetoric has become divisive in the lead-up to the October 15th election.
For its own part, Mr. Tusk’s Civic Platform, a center-left party that ruled Poland from 2007 to 2015 and did align closely with the then-government of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has held few punches.
The leaders of Civic Platform depict the Law and Justice party as having xenophobic, anti-women, anti-gay, and authoritarian tendencies. They have also emphasized the ruling party’s strained relationship with the EU bureaucracy in Brussels. The EU is withholding COVID-19 recovery funds from Poland due to concerns that the Law and Justice party implemented undemocratic judicial reforms in 2019, which go against EU standards and democratic principles.
In June, the highest court of the EU made a ruling stating that the reforms in Poland necessitate judges to disclose their political party memberships. This ruling has been seized upon by leaders of the Civic Platform to propagate a narrative suggesting that the Law and Justice party is leading Poland towards an authoritarian regime with a single-party rule. This sentiment is widely shared, particularly in urban areas such as Warsaw, where protesters organized significant demonstrations against the ruling government just prior to the EU’s decision.
If Mr. Tusk regains power, he has promised to reverse the trend and release the frozen EU aid.
Polls give the Law and Justice party a small but steady lead over about 8 to 10 percentage points over Civic Platform, but both parties are well short of a majority and the outcome could be determined by how many seats go to smaller parties on the left and right. The socially conservative, anti-EU Confederation Freedom and Independence Party and its mercurial co-founder Slawomir Mentzen has surged to 11% support in a recent averaging of polls and could be in position to play kingmaker in the post-vote coalition negotiations.
Economy first
But it’s unclear how many voters in the predominantly Catholic country — particularly in rural communities and smaller cities where Law and Justice party support is strongest — really care about what the rigorously secular EU thinks of Poland.
According to local analysts, what is important is that the Polish economy has experienced growth under the rule of the Law and Justice party, and Poland’s influence as a regional power has significantly increased following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The ongoing dispute has resulted in an increase in international assistance and military movement through Poland. Additionally, Warsaw has received special funding from the EU to help cover expenses related to the over one million Ukrainian refugees seeking refuge in Poland.
The outcome reveals that the Law and Justice government has an advantage that spans beyond domestic ideological divisions. This advantage is due to the significant role the party has taken on for Poland in addressing the war and the broader concern of Russian military aggression towards Europe. Many Poles, irrespective of their political beliefs, believe that neighboring Germany and other Western European countries are not adequately addressing this aggression.
Pawel Pawlowski, a geopolitics expert from the Warsaw Institute think tank, stated that security is a crucial concern in the election due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This matter stirs strong emotions and holds significant appeal for politicians from all parties to exploit in their campaigns.
Some emphasize the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Poland’s overall political mindset.
“I cannot reword”
“I cannot reword”
“In Poland, we perceive that our Western European counterparts do not fully align with us on this matter,” she stated during an interview.
The Law and Justice party has aimed to benefit from these stories. The party has also gained attention worldwide by claiming that established EU powers are supporting Germany in appeasing Russia, especially in the energy industry, before the Ukraine invasion.
Over the past 18 months of conflict, this message has had a strong impact on the NATO eastern flank, encompassing Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
“I cannot reword”
Over the last two years, Poland has become the focal point of a significant NATO logistics mission. This operation involves supplying Ukraine with multinational weapons and other assistance. Despite being frequently overlooked, Poland has emerged as a crucial player in regional security, particularly in the eastern periphery of the EU.
Poland has taken action in response to the conflict in Ukraine by strengthening its military forces. The government of Law and Justice has made a commitment to allocate almost 4% of the country’s GDP towards defense expenditures in 2023. This percentage would surpass the ratio of defense spending in the United States and exceed that of all other NATO countries, such as Germany, Canada, and France, which have not yet reached the alliance’s target of allocating 2% of their GDP towards defense by the following year.
Nationalists within the ruling Law and Justice party say Poland, the fifth most populous country in the European Union, is destined to play a more robust role in an era of emerging great power competition in which Russia and China are increasingly aligned against Europe and the United States.
The Law and Justice party had a strong bond with former President Donald Trump, who played a significant role in enhancing collaboration between the U.S. energy sector and Poland during his visit to Warsaw in 2017. During this trip, Mr. Trump also commended Andrzej Duda, the Polish President and a prominent member of the Law and Justice party, for his efforts in promoting the “Three Seas Initiative.”
Since 2016, the initiative has been working towards promoting energy, transportation, and digital infrastructure from the northern to southern regions among 12 European nations located east of Germany.
Mr. Pawlowski suggested the future of such regional cohesion, and Poland’s leadership role within it, is a fundamental undercurrent of the debate here ahead of the October election.
“I do not anticipate that the result of the election, regardless of what it may be, will significantly alter Poland’s stance on the war in Ukraine,” he stated. “We will continue to provide support to Ukraine as we currently do. However, in the long run, the outcome of the election could potentially impact regional security. For instance, the Civic Platform does not hold a favorable view of the Three Seas Initiative and regional collaboration. They perceive it as perplexing and detrimental to the European Union, preferring to concentrate solely on cooperation within the EU.”
The U.S. and the ballot
Regarding the relations between the United States and Poland and the upcoming vote, Mr. Pawlowski stated that the Law and Justice party is completely supportive of America. On the other hand, the Civic Coalition is not against America, but they strongly favor German policies.
There were worries in Poland after Mr. Trump lost the 2020 election that the new Biden administration would adopt a confrontational approach towards accusations of democratic decline by the Law and Justice government. However, the ruling party has shown support for Mr. Biden’s stance on Ukraine.
It has also moved ahead with Washington on energy deals. A recent Congressional Research Service report noted how Poland, which continues to rely on coal for more than two-thirds of its electricity generation, announced a deal with the U.S. company Westinghouse to build six nuclear reactors by the mid-2040s — a move that fits with President Biden’s goal of reducing global fossil fuel consumption to address climate change.
The current Polish economy has been characterized by the World Bank as “one of the most resilient in the EU.”
“I cannot reword”
She mentioned that when questioned, individuals express their possible dislike for the politics, but acknowledge that life has improved compared to the period before Law and Justice. Poland now has a thriving middle class, and people are content and pleased with the current situation. Additionally, numerous infrastructure projects are taking place throughout the country.
