On Tuesday, the top national security official of the Polish government cautioned that Russia is increasingly employing “hybrid warfare” tactics, such as cyber attacks, border disruptions, and disinformation campaigns, with the aim of destabilizing NATO’s eastern flank.
Jacek Siewiera, the head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, stated that as Moscow’s regular military is occupied in Ukraine due to a long-lasting conflict, the Kremlin is now more determined to create regional disorder using unorthodox methods.
The speaker emphasized that Western European countries need to be more watchful of the various actions that Moscow, with the assistance of Belarus, is undertaking to intimidate NATO members like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia for their support of Ukraine. It is important to note that this threat persists despite the fact that NATO and Russian forces have managed to avoid direct confrontation thus far.
“I cannot reword.”
“I am confident that in the near future, many European countries including France, Spain, and others, may have to confront hybrid threats, if they are not already doing so,” stated Mr. Siewiera during a visit to Poland organized by the Polish Foreign Ministry, while addressing a gathering of international journalists.
His comments coincide with weeks of rising tensions between the Russia-aligned government of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and NATO’s easternmost member nations, where fears have swirled for months that the war in Ukraine could spread eastward.
Poland has stationed numerous soldiers at its border with Belarus, a nation that military and security authorities here openly describe as a pawn in the Kremlin’s expanding hybrid warfare strategy.
On Tuesday, General Wieslaw M. Kukula, the commander general of Poland’s Armed Forces, stated that Belarus is simply a tool controlled by the Russians.
The tension between Warsaw and Minsk has significantly increased following the mysterious death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian Wagner Mercenary Group, and other high-ranking company members in a recent private plane accident.
Mr. Prigozhin had relocated a large contingent of Wagner mercenaries to a site in Belarus as part of a deal to end his abortive uprising against Russian President Vladimir Putin in late June. The Lukashenko government has said it hopes to use the Wagner forces for Belarus’ own security interests.
After the departure of Mr. Prigozhin, it remains uncertain who will assume leadership of the battle-experienced mercenaries, who played a significant role in the conflict in Ukraine.
General Kukula stated on Tuesday that there has been an increase in acts of provocation originating from the Belarusian border. These provocations involve the utilization of lasers directed towards the eyes of Polish border forces. However, he did not disclose the specific individuals or groups responsible for employing this tactic within Belarus.
Russia has for years sought a military advantage over the U.S. and its allies through the use of hybrid warfare — an approach often credited to Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces.
In 2013, a journal article was published by the general, which is now widely regarded as the strategic basis for the Kremlin’s subversion strategies in the following years. The “Gerasimov Doctrine of Hybrid Warfare” combines traditional and non-traditional forms of warfare, effectively broadening the range of military tactics to include cyberspace.
“In the 21st century, there has been a noticeable trend of blurring the distinction between the conditions of war and peace,” expressed the general. “Wars are no longer officially announced and, once initiated, they unfold in an unfamiliar manner. The fundamental ‘laws of war’ have undergone alterations.”
U.S. experts in national security have been expecting an increase in Moscow’s utilization of hybrid warfare for several months. This was evident when Mr. Putin selected Gen. Gerasimov to personally lead all Russian forces in Ukraine.
Polish security officials have no doubt that Russia is leading the hybrid warfare campaign, along with employing various tactics within Poland, which serves as a crucial base for supplying NATO equipment to Ukraine.
According to a counterintelligence official who spoke to the visiting press group on Tuesday, Poland has become a venue for Russian spy activities.
Officials said Polish security authorities have detained 16 people in recent months on suspicion of involvement in a Russian espionage ring operating inside the NATO country. The ring’s key mission was to monitor Polish military facilities and track road and rail routes for NATO equipment moving across the border into Ukraine.
The officials stated that Russia and Belarus are currently engaged in a comprehensive propaganda effort to weaken the relationship between Poland and Ukraine, while also exacerbating internal divisions in Poland in preparation for the upcoming parliamentary elections in October.
“I cannot reword”
