Reports indicate that Kim and Putin are scheduled to have a meeting regarding weapons, space, and regional naval drills.
According to various reports on Tuesday, there are plans for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The topics of discussion are said to include potential weapons support for the conflict in Ukraine, assistance in space technology for North Korea, and the possibility of conducting joint naval exercises.
The upcoming meeting will present a new obstacle for the Biden administration. They have been working to establish alliances with countries like Australia and Japan in the Indo-Pacific region to address the increasing economic and security issues.
The primary focus of these relationships is to limit the influence of China and North Korea. However, due to Russia’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, a country that has historically kept its distance from the unpredictable North Korean regime, there are now new incentives for Russia to strengthen its ties with Mr. Kim’s government.
North Korea has supported Russia’s Ukraine invasion at the UN while, Russia, with China, has nixed new, U.S.-proposed sanctions on North Korea missile tests.
The White House seems to be “pre-leaking” intelligence regarding a potential meeting between Kim and Putin, similar to what happened before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. U.S. officials have released these reports partly to caution Pyongyang about the repercussions of assisting in replenishing Russia’s diminished arsenal during the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Last month, John Kirby, the spokesperson for White House national security, issued a clear warning to North Korea regarding their efforts to strengthen security relations with Russia. Kirby stated to reporters, “We strongly advise North Korea to stop their discussions on arms with Russia and adhere to the public promises made by Pyongyang, which prohibit the provision or sale of weapons to Russia.” He also mentioned that Washington was prepared to impose new sanctions on Pyongyang if any agreement were to occur.
An upgraded Putin-Kim partnership could bypass sanctions against both and signal the emergence of an anti-American bilateral or — with Beijing — trilateral coalition.
Upcoming summitry may offer some clues.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin have decided to not attend the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi, India, which is set to begin on Saturday. This event will be attended by President Biden. However, on the final day of the summit, Mr. Putin will be hosting his own event in Vladivostok, Russia’s Far Eastern city. This city is located just 300 miles away from the tri-border area that connects China, North Korea, and Russia.
According to senior U.S. officials, The New York Times stated that Mr. Kim plans to journey to Russia for a meeting with Mr. Putin, potentially in Vladivostok. There is a possibility that he may also visit units of Russia’s Pacific Fleet during his visit. In the previous month, a delegation from North Korea had already visited both Vladivostok and Moscow.
Both sides have needs: Mr. Putin wants artillery ammunition and anti-tank missiles, while Mr. Kim has been seeking space and nuclear submarine technologies, and perhaps food aid. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported separately that Russia had invited North Korea to join regional naval drills, possibly alongside China.
Seoul’s intelligence committee reported that during his visit to Pyongyang in July, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed the idea, as stated by Yonhap.
Looking for friends
A high-ranking officer from the allied forces informed The Washington Times in July that both Russia and Ukraine are engaging in artillery attacks with similar strength, which is a significant shift from earlier in the conflict when the Russians were launching much more intense barrages. As Ukraine currently has the advantage in controlling the battlefield, it would be extremely detrimental for Moscow if their artillery force, which has been the most successful Russian unit in Ukraine, becomes weakened due to lack of resources.
North Korea is believed to have major stockpiles of tactical artillery munitions — such as 122mm rockets and 152mm shells — calibrated to Russian barrels.
North Korea seems to require assistance in successfully launching its space surveillance programs. Mr. Kim faced significant negative publicity after unsuccessful attempts to deploy reconnaissance satellites into orbit in both May and August.
In recent days, Mr. Kim has also emphasized the need for a modernized navy during his visit to fleet units. For many years, Pyongyang has focused on developing weapons of mass destruction and has not allocated sufficient funds to its navy.
Although both Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim share similar security concerns, they may encounter difficulties in reaching agreement on other matters.
Andrei Lankov, a North Korea specialist at Kookmin University in Seoul, stated that although the Russian and North Korean economies are not compatible, it is possible that we may witness the presence of North Korean workers in Russia soon. However, he believes that Russia is unlikely to provide the same level of financial support to North Korea as China has been doing for many years, mainly due to Russia’s smaller economy compared to China’s.
Diplomacy presents the opportunity for beneficial collaborations.
The G20 Summit in New Delhi concludes on the same day that Mr. Putin hosts the 8th Eastern Economic Summit in Vladivostok. This city was where Mr. Putin held his first and only summit with Mr. Kim in 2019. If Mr. Kim or Mr. Xi were to appear in Vladivostok in 2023, the level of concern from the U.S. and the region would greatly increase.
“I cannot reword”
However, Mr. Putin takes a gamble by fostering a relationship with Mr. Kim, who leads one of the most economically disadvantaged and secluded nations globally.
“I cannot reword”
