The clash between Israel and Hamas raises concerns about a potential escalation similar to that of ‘World War’.
It’s already the worst fighting in Israel in a quarter-century, but many are worried the clash with Hamas could spiral far beyond Gaza and trigger a larger war that draws in both regional and even global powers, including the U.S., China and Russia.
A worst-case scenario could see the current clash in Gaza draw in other Iran-allied militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinian extremists in the West Bank and Syria, before ballooning into a direct Israel-Iran war featuring long-range ballistic missile barrages from Iran and potentially nuclear strikes by Israel on Iranian military sites.
Analysts suggest that there is a genuine possibility of a geopolitical conflict escalating, where Russia and China support Iran against Israel, the U.S., and Western allies. This situation would put regional powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern nations in a difficult position, as they would be compelled to pick sides.
According to national security strategists, if the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues and China takes advantage of the escalating chaos in the Middle East to attack Taiwan, it could lead to a situation similar to a World War III, with multiple hot wars erupting in various regions of the world.
Jonathan Schanzer from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies expressed concerns about the possibility of a multi-front conflict caused by Iran, which could lead to a crisis in the broader Middle East. If this were to happen simultaneously with other ongoing conflicts like Ukraine, and if China chooses to exploit the situation to divert attention and take action against Taiwan, the risk of a global conflict would significantly rise.
“In simpler terms, if there are simultaneous conflicts happening on various fronts, that would be considered World War III,” he explained during an interview. “It’s not necessary for every front to be directly linked; there can be indirect connections between them.”
Mr. Schanzer tempered the analysis by asserting that such a scenario is precisely what Israel aims to avoid. Iran had denied knowing about or helping plan the Hamas uprising, and both the U.S. and Israeli governments have said in recent days they have seen no intelligence Tehran had a direct role in the surprise attack that has now killed over 2,000 Israelis and nearly two dozen Americans living in Israel.
“I cannot reword”
Although the Biden administration has indirectly warned Iran against taking advantage of the ongoing crisis, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has portrayed Hamas as a group similar to the Islamic State that needs to be eliminated, regardless of its connections to Iran.
Order of battle
Given this context, Mr. Schanzer stated that the primary concern for Israel is determining the sequence of military operations.
“I cannot reword”
Alex Traiman, the Jerusalem bureau chief of the Jewish News Syndicate, provided a comparable evaluation, stating that it is challenging to determine the future outcome of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Hamas, identified by the U.S. State Department as an Iran-supported terrorist organization, has consistently denied Israel’s legitimacy.
Mr. Traiman stated that the situation could range from an Israeli invasion of Gaza, which lasts for a fortnight and ends due to pressure on Israel, resulting in the containment of the jihadi threat, or it could rapidly escalate into a more severe scenario surpassing everyone’s expectations.
He stated that the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group was swiftly deployed to the eastern Mediterranean by the Biden administration, as they recognize the possibility of a broader conflict.
Israel seems to be preparing for military support from various Western allies.
Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is scheduled to provide information to commanders from NATO on Thursday. This is expected to generate discussions regarding the alliance’s readiness to involve itself in a growing conflict in the Middle East, especially considering its current involvement in the Ukraine war.
Turkey, the sole Muslim-majority member of NATO, has strongly denounced Israel’s retaliatory actions against Hamas, indicating early signs of division within the alliance.
There are also concerns about how a possible war between Israel and Iran could affect the future of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which has been going on for almost 19 months.
On Wednesday, Agence France-Presse reported that Mr. Gallant’s presentation to NATO commanders is happening at a time when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is worried that the situation in Israel might divert the attention of the United States, which is the main supporter of Ukraine within the alliance.
Mr. Zelenskyy appeared at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday to urge alliance members to provide further weaponry for Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive against Russia, as well as air defenses to protect against an anticipated winter onslaught by Russia.
The Russia factor
Russia and China are proceeding with caution in their response to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The foreign ministry of China has urged for a reduction in tensions, but has declined to criticize Hamas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to exploit the situation as a vehicle for tarring the image of the United States, and to portray himself as a potential peace-broker.
Moscow’s growing strategic ties with Iran, which allegedly involve significant deliveries of Iranian ammunition, rockets, and mortars to support the Russian military operation in Ukraine, add complexity to Russia’s stance.
It remains uncertain if Russia would provide assistance to Iran in the event of a conflict with Israel.
Experts observe that Mr. Putin has a track record of collaborating with Israel and maintaining sensitive relationships with different Arab nations, such as Saudi Arabia, which has positioned itself as a competitor to Iran.
Hanna Notte, an analyst based in Berlin and an expert on Russian policy in the Middle East from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, believes that Russia is not inclined to fully align itself with Iran.
“Could Russia be compelled to align more closely with Iran in the event of a major war? It is a possibility,” Ms. Notte stated in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty this week.
Some people observe the unstable development of the relationships between Russia and Iran, as well as Russia and Israel, in light of the ongoing civil war in Syria.
“Iran and Russia have been the dominant players in Syria for a long time, each with their own agenda to contain the influence of the other,” stated Mr. Traiman. “During that period, Russia and Israel enjoyed a strong level of collaboration, characterized by a great deal of mutual respect between Putin and Netanyahu.”
“I cannot reword”
Mr. Traiman also mentioned that a potential Middle East conflict could potentially benefit Putin as it diverts attention from the ongoing atrocities in Ukraine.
He stated that it is uncertain whether Russia would support Iran. However, it would not be wise to dismiss any possible situation, and if it were to occur, it could potentially lead to a global conflict known as World War III.
Some argue that Washington should support Israel while simultaneously employing diplomatic measures and military deterrence to prevent the escalation of the ongoing conflict beyond the region and global boundaries.
Andreas Kluth, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist who focuses on geopolitics, states that the possibility of that occurrence is real but cannot be measured.
“This is not the first instance where seemingly unrelated conflicts have combined to create a larger catastrophe, primarily due to the involvement of the same parties,” Mr. Kluth stated recently. “In 1914, a similar sequence of events occurred, escalating from the assassination of an archduke by a Serbian nationalist to a full-scale war between the major world powers within just four weeks.”
“It is imperative that such events do not occur in 2023, and it is the responsibility of the United States to ensure that.”
