The upcoming presidential campaign is becoming clearer. It may bear a strong resemblance to the previous one.

NEW YORK (AP) — The end of Labor Day weekend would typically mark the start of a furious sprint to the Iowa caucuses as candidates battle for their party’s presidential nomination. But as the 2024 campaign comes into greater focus, the usual frenzy is yielding to a sense of inevitability.

Among Republicans, Donald Trump is dominating the primary field, outpacing rivals with resumes as governors, diplomats and entrepreneurs that would normally prove compelling. The former president’s strength comes despite – or perhaps because of – multiple criminal indictments that threaten to overshadow any serious debate about the future of the country. And for now, the tens of millions of dollars that Republican rivals are pouring into the race are doing little to diminish Trump’s stature, fueling concerns among his GOP critics who fear the primary is essentially over before it begins.

As one troubled front-runner tightens his grip on the Republican nomination, President Biden is on a glide path to victory on the Democratic side. The 80-year-old incumbent is facing only token opposition for the Democratic nomination despite concerns about his age and performance from many within his own party.

Whether voters like it or not, a Trump-Biden rematch may be on the horizon, raising the prospect of a deeply uncertain election season that only intensifies the nation’s political divide. Already, Trump is skipping his party’s presidential debates and his court appearances are sometimes drawing more attention than his campaign stops. And Biden has barely begun to campaign as he grapples with questions about his age and his son’s legal challenges.

“I find it difficult to envision significant changes occurring. Therefore, it seems that history will repeat itself,” expressed California Governor Gavin Newsom, a member of the Democratic party, during an interview. He commended Biden’s track record of accomplishments but cautioned his party not to underestimate Trump’s political influence.

Newsom acknowledged that the concerns regarding Biden’s age are a valid topic of discussion, and the White House is aware of it.

“If age determines outcomes,” he continued, “I am eagerly anticipating his 85th birthday.”

Some donors and party leaders on the Republican side are growing increasingly concerned as they had expected conservative voters to distance themselves from Trump after the attack on the Capitol he incited on January 6, 2021, and his ongoing legal battles.

“I am deeply saddened by the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch, as it would have detrimental consequences for our nation,” expressed Bobbie Kilberg, a well-known Republican contributor who is endorsing former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Kilberg finds it concerning that a significant number of voters within her party still stand behind the former president, describing it as “frightening.” She firmly maintains her belief that Trump should not be considered as the inevitable nominee for their party.

There is time for the 2024 landscape to shift.

Four months remain before the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses and the general election is more than a year away. And recent history has plenty of examples of overlooked and seemingly overmatched candidates who proved the conventional wisdom wrong. Both Trump and Biden are among them.

There are also significant variables.

Even in traditionally Republican states like Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio, abortion remains a contentious issue that influences elections. Republican attempts to limit access to the procedure are being rejected by voters, potentially leading to even stronger opposition as the courts examine restrictions on a widely utilized abortion pill.

And Trump is facing 91 felony charges in criminal proceedings unfolding in Washington, New York, Miami and Atlanta. They involve everything from his handling of classified information to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election to orchestrating hush money payments to a porn actor.

The former president could be a convicted felon before the general election is decided next November. Still, party leaders – including most of his Republican primary opponents — have vowed to support him even if convicted. And nothing in the Constitution bars felons from assuming the presidency.

Both parties’ leaders are willing to disregard drawbacks.

Quentin Wathum-Ocama, President of the Young Democrats of America, acknowledges that young voters may not be particularly excited about a Trump-Biden rematch. However, he remains optimistic that Trump’s divisive campaign will motivate Democrats in a way that Biden cannot.

“I cannot reword.”

Almost without any exceptions, Democratic officials in Congress and important states are openly supporting Biden’s bid for reelection.

Bernie Sanders, the Vermont Senator who posed the strongest challenge to Biden in the 2020 Democratic primary, endorsed Biden’s bid for reelection shortly after it was announced earlier this year. Biden also sought the support of other potential rivals by inviting them to join his national advisory board. This group includes Ro Khanna, a Democratic Representative from California, J.B. Pritzker, the Governor of Illinois, and Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California.

Republicans have delighted in suggesting that Newsom plans to launch a primary challenge against Biden, something the California governor has repeatedly ruled out. That’s even as Newsom teases the possibility of a high-profile debate against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is among Trump’s top Republican challengers.

In a display of assurance, the Trump campaign has already started shifting its focus towards a potential general election face-off with Biden.

He has no intention of participating in any Republican presidential debates, according to his team, as they believe there will be little to no repercussions for skipping the first debate last month. DeSantis, who was once considered a formidable contender, has faced difficulties in meeting the expectations placed upon him.

It is exceedingly challenging for others to make headway due to Trump’s extensive political network and strong connections within the party.

Brian Jack, Trump’s political director, stated that the president gains an advantage from his eight-year leadership of the party.