Violent crime soars in 2022 with blame pinned on too few cops, lax prosecutors, more brutal society

Homicides dipped slightly in 2022 but violent crimes such as rape, robbery and assault remain dramatically higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, The Washington Times found in a review of data from police departments across the country.

Through the final week in December, violent crime in Chicago soared to 41% compared to the same period a year earlier, though homicides declined by 14%. In New York City, overall violent crime increased by 23% compared to 2021, but murders plunged by 13%. Violent crime in Los Angeles jumped by 8% while murders dropped by roughly 6%.

Studies by police and law enforcement organizations reached similar conclusions.

The Council on Criminal Justice’s mid-year 2022 crime report, released in September, found that through the first six months of the year, the homicide rate in 29 U.S. cities dipped by 2% compared to the previous year. At the same time, aggravated assaults and robberies increased by 4% and 19%, respectively.

A survey of 70 U.S. law enforcement agencies by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found that through the first six months of 2022, homicides dropped by 2% but violent crime increased by 4.4%. The survey found robberies were up by 13% and aggravated assaults increased by 3%.

Police officers and criminal justice experts say there is no single reason for the rise in violent crime. They point to several factors, including police departments trying to make do with fewer officers, soft-on-crime prosecutors and societal stressors such as the economy and society just becoming more violent society.

“We are just in an increasingly violent society and when you combine that with a lack of law enforcement officers and fewer prosecutions in many areas, we have this terrible, perfect storm of things happening,” said Betsy Brantner Smith, a spokeswoman for the National Police Association. 

Low morale, increased scrutiny of officers and anti-police rhetoric from politicians have police officers leaving in droves. Departments are struggling to keep the officers they have and attract new ones. The retention crisis comes as many of the same cities are grappling with crime surges.

The exodus has forced police departments to prioritize murders, rapes and other serious crimes. That has left far fewer officers responding to crimes such as robbery, burglaries and assaults. In some cities, officers aren’t responding at all, instead requiring victims to fill out a police report online.

The Philadelphia Police Department has 5,983 uniformed officers, a 10% decrease from 6,590 in 2019, according to city data. A Philadelphia Office of the Comptroller’s office estimates that the number of officers could drop by another 13% by the end of 2025. Property crimes in the city have increased by nearly 30%.

Through the last week of December, robberies with a gun were up 22% compared to the same period the previous year. Other types of robberies were up roughly 12%. Overall, violent crime increased by roughly 2%, but murders dropped by roughly 9%. Lower-level property crimes increased by more than 29%.

New York was on pace to see more than 4,000 officers walk off the job in 2022, the most since after the 9/11 terror attacks. That’s roughly a 42% increase from the number of officers who left the department in 2021.

Robberies in the city are also up by 26% and felony assaults have surged by 13% contributing to a roughly 23% increase in violent crime despite the drop in murders.

The San Diego Association of Governments reported that violent crime in 2022, including aggravated assaults, reached their highest levels since 2012 and marked a 2% increase from the previous year. At the same time, more than 230 police officers left the department, a 52% increase compared to 2021 and the highest number in more than a decade.

“There is an increase in thefts, assaults, and other crimes because police are not responding to these calls with the same capability or concern they once had because they have to focus on rapes, robberies and other high-profile crimes,” said Jack Rinchich, president of the National Association of Chiefs of Police.

Mr. Rinchich says he understands that limited resources constrain officers’ abilities to respond to less serious crimes. Still, he argues, enforcing misdemeanors and other low-level offenses helps keep a lid on more serious crimes

“I would always focus my efforts on these lesser crimes and it would lead me to bigger crimes. If you take a little time to get extra evidence or an extra witness with these smaller crimes, it will pay off in solving a major crime,” he said.

Marc Levin, chief policy counsel for the Council on Criminal Justice, estimates the number of assaults is actually much higher than what police department data revealed. He said assaults where individuals know each other such as a domestic violence case or street brawls often go unreported.

“Reporting of assaults is a big issue, especially with people who know each other. Homicides are different because there is a body found at some point, but if no one calls in an assault, the police don’t know about it,” he said.

Experts also point to soaring inflation, which hit a 40-year high in 2022, as another reason for the violent crime surge. High retail prices brought on by government splurging, tight supply chains, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent consumers to the black market for consumer goods spurring assaults, robberies, and shoplifting.  

A report from the National Retail Foundation found that the industry lost $94.5 billion in shoplifting. Retailers, on average, saw a 26.5% increase in retail crime, the report said.

The impact of inflation extends beyond shoplifting and into violent crime.

Researchers at the University of St. Louis 2019 analyzed inflation rates in 17 U.S. cities over 53 years and found it was associated with increased rates of homicides and violent crime with a stronger link in disadvantaged communities.

A separate study by noted criminologist Richard Rosenfeld found inflation had a significant impact on homicide, robbery and burglary rates in European and U.S. cities.

Criminologists and police say they see American society, in general, becoming more violent. They say they are seeing violence on par with its early-1990s peak. However, they are at a loss to explain the violence surge.

“It does seem like we are a more violent society and we are returning to the way things were in the 1990s,” Ms. Brantner Smith said. “There is just a lack of respect for life. You are seeing people shoved and beaten. There are a lot more strangers attacking strangers.”