One chief is confident, satisfied that momentum is on his facet as the brand new yr looms. The different is on the defensive, confronted with mounting questions over whether or not his nation is on an irreversible path to defeat.
Those descriptions apply to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But not like final December, when Mr. Putin’s military was reeling and Mr. Zelenskyy projected confidence amid shocking and sustained battlefield successes, now the Kremlin claims to have seized the higher hand.
Kyiv, whose vaunted 2023 counteroffensive produced disappointing outcomes, completed the yr nonetheless ready for the U.S. and European Union to return via with one other spherical of desperately wanted monetary and navy support. Without it, there are severe questions on how lengthy Ukraine can maintain off the bigger Russian military.
Mr. Putin, in contrast, ends the yr on a excessive observe after a six-month whirlwind. In June, he appeared on the verge of being pushed from energy throughout an inside rebellion led by the late Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, a insurrection pushed by frustration over how Mr. Putin and his high generals have been managing the conflict effort.
Now, Mr. Putin’s grip on energy seems rock strong. He has simply confirmed plans to run for (and nearly definitely win) a brand new six-year time period as president, and his troops are making advances on key fronts in japanese Ukraine. Russian forces are additionally consolidating their positions, stockpiling provides and build up assets, signaling they’re ready to go on the offensive in 2024.
“Our troops are holding the initiative,” Mr. Putin mentioned throughout a year-end press convention this week. “We are effectively doing what we think is needed, doing what we want. Where our commanders consider it necessary to stick to active defenses they are doing so, and we are improving our positions where it’s needed.”
“The enemy has suffered heavy casualties and to a large extent wasted its reserves while trying to show at least some results of its so-called counteroffensive to its masters,” he mentioned. “All attempts by the West to deliver us a military defeat, a strategic defeat, were shattered by the courage and fortitude of our soldiers, the growing might of our armed forces and the potential of our military industries.”
The confidence seems contagious on the Kremlin today.
“There is certainly an understanding and feeling of a fundamental turning point that we all are seeing in our confrontation with the West,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova informed a press briefing Wednesday. “This tipping point is visible and obvious everywhere.”
There’s little argument that Mr. Putin is appropriate on not less than one rely: Ukraine’s broadly hyped counteroffensive failed in its acknowledged bid to make main advances within the Donbas area or elsewhere. That operation, launched final summer season, was anticipated to drive Russian forces again towards their very own border, placing much more stress on Mr. Putin maybe to think about ending the battle and withdrawing from most, if not all, of Ukraine’s territory.
Instead, Russian troops now have the battlefield initiative for the primary time in months. British intelligence officers mentioned Wednesday that whereas a serious Russian breakthrough seems unlikely within the quick time period, Mr. Putin’s troops are actually those conducting native offensive operations whereas Ukraine is fortifying defensive trenches.
In his year-end press convention, Mr. Zelenskyy nonetheless projected his trademark confidence.
He merely replied “no” when requested whether or not his nation was going to lose the conflict. But he additionally conceded that his nation faces “lots of challenges” within the yr forward and signaled in no unsure phrases that he’s relying on the U.S. to return via.
“I am confident that the U.S. will not let us down and that what we have agreed with the U.S. will be fulfilled,” he mentioned.
Trouble forward?
Lawmakers left Washington this week after failing to cross President Biden’s $61.4 billion support bundle for Ukraine. Republicans in each chambers wish to see more cash for border safety connected to any Ukraine support payments, whereas House Republican leaders are also demanding that the White House clarify Ukraine’s highway map to a decisive win over Russia.
Publicly, the administration is standing firmly behind Ukraine and insisting that Mr. Putin will fail.
“He thinks his strategy of waiting us out while sending wave after wave of young Russians into a meat grinder of his own making will pay off,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed reporters at his year-end press convention Wednesday in Washington. “On one and only point, I agree with Putin: America’s ongoing support is critical to enabling Ukraine’s great soldiers and citizens to keep up their fight to ensure Russia’s war remains a strategic failure.”
Mr. Blinken argued that Mr. Putin has failed in his bigger objectives when launching the invasion in February 2022 — the Ukrainian authorities remains to be standing and NATO has expanded with the addition of Finland and the possible addition of Sweden within the coming days.
“Putin is betting that our divisions will prevent us from coming through for Ukraine. We have proven him wrong before. We will prove him wrong again,” Mr. Blinken mentioned.
What’s totally different this time, nonetheless, is the mix of Russian battlefield momentum and cracks in Western help, and a rising sense that the draining conflict of attrition might go on for a very long time.
As the U.S. and EU grapple over whether or not to supply extra support to Ukraine, there are rising questions on what precisely that support would obtain, in need of holding the road and stopping a transparent Russian victory.
Even with all the help supplied, Russian troops are actually making important advances. Russian forces are pressuring the Ukrainian facet close to the northeastern metropolis of Kupiansk, an important rail hub that Moscow captured early within the conflict however subsequently misplaced to Ukraine in September 2022. Russian troops are additionally pushing towards a number of key cities within the Donetsk province whereas Ukrainian forces construct deep defensive trenches within the space.
Russian troops, broadly derided for his or her poor efficiency and low morale within the conflict’s early days, now symbolize “the best prepared and capable army in the world, armed with advanced weapons that have been tested in combat,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu boasted this week.
As the Kremlin has proven via the a long time, it’s keen to expend an excessive amount of blood and treasure to realize its goals. Such a grinding conflict might be exceedingly troublesome for Ukraine to win.
“Once again, the previous week witnessed no strategic changes in battlefield geometry. Nonetheless, tactical advances from the Russian military have been continuing with concerning success,” Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow on the Hudson Institute, wrote in an evaluation Wednesday. “These advances have come at the expense of significant losses of equipment and personnel, which the Russian high command is willing to tolerate.”
